The US dollar fell for three consecutive days, metals generally declined, with alumina dropping over 3%, SHFE zinc, coking coal, and coke leading the losses, while gold prices hit a new high. [SMM Midday Review]

SMM March 31 News:

In the metal market:

By the midday close, domestic base metals were nearly all down. SHFE lead fell 0.54%, SHFE zinc dropped 1.95%, SHFE copper declined 0.98%, SHFE nickel decreased 1.46%, and SHFE aluminum slipped 0.41%. SHFE tin rose 0.67%.

Additionally, alumina fell 3.28%, lithium carbonate dropped 0.59%, silicon metal declined 1.16%, and the most-traded polysilicon futures contract fell 0.5%.

In the ferrous metals series, iron ore fell 1.66%, rebar dropped 0.97%, HRC declined 0.95%, and stainless steel slipped 0.93%. For coking coal and coke, coking coal fell 2.88%, and coke dropped 2.63%.

In overseas metal markets, by 11:45, all base metals were down. LME lead, LME copper, and LME aluminum fell within 0.5%, LME zinc dropped 0.67%, LME tin declined 1.41%, and LME nickel fell 1.65%.

In the precious metals sector, by 11:45, COMEX gold rose 0.78%, hitting a new historical high of $3,143.6/oz during the session! COMEX silver increased 0.42%. Domestically, SHFE gold rose 1.41%, reaching a new historical high of 728.2 yuan/gram during the session, and SHFE silver increased 0.18%. OCBC analysts stated, "For now, given these geopolitical concerns and tariff uncertainties, the appeal of gold as a safe-haven asset and inflation hedge has further strengthened. Against the backdrop of ongoing global trade frictions and uncertainties, we remain constructive on the outlook for gold." Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, and UBS all raised their gold price targets this month. Goldman Sachs predicts that gold will rise to $3,300 by the end of this year, up from a previous estimate of $3,100. Bank of America expects gold to reach $3,063/oz in 2025 and $3,350/oz in 2026, up from previous forecasts of $2,750/oz and $2,625/oz, respectively.

By the midday close, the most-traded European container shipping futures contract fell 0.73%, to 2,231.9 points.

As of 11:45 on March 31, some futures midday market:

》March 31 SMM Metal Spot Prices

Spot and Fundamentals

Copper: Today, Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract were at a discount of 20 yuan/mt to a premium of 40 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 10 yuan/mt, down 50 yuan/mt from the previous session. SX-EW copper was at a discount of 90 yuan/mt to 70 yuan/mt, with an average discount of 80 yuan/mt, down 50 yuan/mt from the previous session. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 80,150 yuan/mt, down 515 yuan/mt from the previous session, while the average price of SX-EW copper was 80,060 yuan/mt, down 515 yuan/mt from the previous session. In the spot market, Guangdong inventory increased for the sixth consecutive day, mainly due to concentrated arrivals of east China supplies. 》Click for Details

Macro Front

Domestic:

【NBS: March PMI at 50.5%, Up 0.3 Percentage Points MoM, Manufacturing Activity Continues to Recover】 Data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed that in March, the manufacturing PMI was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points MoM, indicating continued recovery in manufacturing activity. The non-manufacturing business activity index was 50.8%, up 0.4 percentage points MoM, showing an accelerated pace of expansion in the non-manufacturing sector. The composite PMI output index was 51.4%, up 0.3 percentage points MoM, indicating an overall acceleration in the expansion of China's enterprise production and business activities. 》Click for Details

【Central Bank Net Injects 31.7 Billion Yuan in Open Market Operations】 The central bank conducted 166.7 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repo operations today, with the operation rate unchanged at 1.50%. As 135 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repos matured today, the net injection for the day was 31.7 billion yuan.

► March 31 Interbank Foreign Exchange Market RMB Central Parity Rate: 1 USD to 7.1782 RMB

【Nanjing Fully Lifts Restrictions on Commodity Housing Sales】 Nanjing held a press conference on further promoting the stable and healthy development of the city's real estate market. Starting from March 31, 2025, sales restrictions will be lifted citywide, allowing commodity housing to be traded on the market immediately after obtaining the property ownership certificate, effectively meeting residents' various housing replacement needs.

US Dollar:

By 11:45, the US dollar index continued its decline from the previous two trading days, falling 0.15% to 103.84. The rebound in US consumer spending in February was lower than expected, while a core price indicator recorded its largest increase in 13 months, raising concerns about weak growth and high inflation in the US economy amid escalating trade tensions. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly stated that Friday's inflation data confirmed her declining confidence in the baseline expectation of two rate cuts this year as a "reasonable" forecast.

Other Currencies:

As investors grew concerned about potential tariff measures by Trump, market risk aversion surged sharply. On Monday, the USD/JPY fell significantly to 148.80, with a drop of up to 0.72%. Last Friday, US economic data showed core inflation exceeded expectations, fueling concerns about stagflation and pushing the yen up 0.82%. "The latest US economic data carries a distinct stagflationary flavor, prompting investors to shun high-risk assets and seek safe havens," said Ray Attrill, Head of FX Research at National Australia Bank. (Huitong Finance)

(As of around 11:35 on March 31, USD/JPY trend)

Data:

Today, the Eurozone February ECB 1-year CPI expectation, Eurozone February ECB 3-year CPI expectation, Germany March CPI YoY final, and US March Chicago PMI will be released. Additionally, the 2025 Zhongguancun Forum Annual Meeting, co-hosted by the Ministry of Science and Technology, NDRC, SASAC, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chinese Academy of Engineering, China Association for Science and Technology, and Beijing Municipal Government, is worth noting, taking place in Beijing from March 27 to 31.

Crude Oil:

By 11:45, crude oil futures were slightly down, with WTI falling 0.15% and Brent dropping 0.4%. Oil prices are on track for a slight quarterly decline, despite US warnings of potential secondary tariffs on Russian oil buyers.

Nomura economist Yuki Takashima stated, "Doubts about the feasibility of US tariff policies and OPEC+'s production increase starting in April have kept investors cautious. US crude is expected to remain in the $65 to $75 range as the market assesses the impact of US tariffs on oil supply and the global economy, as well as supply conditions in the US and OPEC+."

Traders said that Saudi Arabia, the top oil exporter, may lower its crude selling prices to Asian buyers to a three-month low in May, following a sharp decline in benchmark prices this month. (Webstock Inc.)

Spot Market Overview:

► Weekend Return Sees Inventory Surge, Spot Trading Quiet, Premiums Drop Sharply [SMM South China Copper Spot]

► Copper Prices Weaken, Demand Recovers, Spot Premiums Rise [SMM North China Copper Spot]

► Market Fear of Decline, Spot Trading Falls Short of Expectations [SMM Aluminum Spot Midday Review]

► 【SMM Hot Topic】Exports "Cool Down," Domestic Demand "Takes Over"?—Where Will HRC Go in Q2?

Other Metal Spot Midday Reviews to Be Updated Later, Please Refresh to View